How well do you adapt to adversity? When you face complex situations in life do you tend to rise up or crumble under the pressure? If you feel that you have room for improvement I would encourage you to look into Dietrich Dorner’s book, The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations.
If you are starting a business, planning a new adventure, charting a career or just continuing along the way, you are wise to review the common-sense keys to success outlined by Dorner in this thought-provoking book. Here are a few points that I found helpful:
- Gather information before acting
- Think systematically
- Review progress
- Correct course often
- Take responsibilty, don’t blame
Common sense, really, but how often are these parameters overlooked when you’re in the heat of the moment? There are, of course, situations where time is limited, but the majority of circumstances we face can be planned for if not anticipated. Those that can’t are much more eaily handled if the general pattern preceding them is ordered and well-considered.
I recall hearing every one of these points during my early flight training as a teenager. In fact, every one of them is emphasized in one way or another as being critical to safe flying. The introduction of the third dimension adds much more complexity to movement across the earth’s surface and the accident statistics show that he who is not prepared should not be in the air.
If you have ever considered taking flying lessons or even ground school, I would highly recommend it. So many of the principles that govern handling the complexities of flight can easily be applied to living. The FAA uses the acronym PAVE, for instance, to describe a checklist that comes in handy when you are looking to examine the hazards of a particular course of action. Here is what the letters stand for:
- PILOT: What hazards are associated with the pilot (e.g., training, total experience, recent experience, physical and emotional health).
- AIRCRAFT: What hazards are associated with the aircraft? Does it have the right equipment? Is it in good mechanical condition?
- ENVIRONMENT: What hazards are associated with the airport to be used? Are the runways long enough? What kind of terrain will the flight encounter? What are the weather conditions? Will the route cover controlled or restricted airspace?
- EXTERNAL PRESSURES: What are the external pressures likely to affect the pilot’s decision-making? Are there urgent reasons to proceed? Will passenger pressure be an issue? What alternatives are available?
To have a more successful week, I suggest that you take the time today to list out your major projects and go through each one, asking yourself how, in relation to Dorner’s five points, you can step up your game and improve your chances of achieving a successful outcome. If you’re facing a particularly risky patch, think PAVE as well.
Have a great week and bon voyage!
Gregory Hake 
The greatest revelation in performing this exercise was the fact that what “I thought” to be external pressures actually turned out to be internal pressures that I have total control over, upon realizing this it’s great to have the responsibility of choice restored! Once again, clearly attitude determines altitude! Thanks for a great start on this wonderful Eve, of a new week.
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Thanks for the book suggestion. I’ve never come across this one but between your post and the reviews on Amazon I’ve ordered it and I’m looking forward to reading it. I love books about practical wisdom.
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I downloaded Dorner’s book – can’t wait to read it!
I was reminded of Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s book “Flow” where he described that activities that produce the ‘flow’ experience, even the seemingly most risky ones, are constructed so as to allow the participant to develop sufficient skills to reduce the margin of error to as close to zero as possible. He draws the conclusion that it’s not necessarily the sense of being in control that people esteem and take pleasure in but the sense of exercising control in difficult situations. ‘Exercising’ implies a different level of participation than ‘being’ doesn’t it?
He uses the example of rock climbers who, “for instance, recognize two sets of dangers: ‘objective” and ‘subjective’ ones. The first kind are the unpredictable physical events that might confront a person on the mountain: a sudden storm, an avalanche, a falling rock, a drastic drop in temperature. One can prepare oneself against these threats, but they can never be completely foreseen. Subjective dangers are those that arise from the climber’s lack of skill – including the inability to estimate correctly the difficulty of a climb in relation to one’s ability. The whole point of climbing is to avoid objective dangers as much as possible, and to eliminate subjective dangers entirely by rigorous discipline and sound preparation. As a result, climbers genuinely believe that climbing the Matterhorn is safer than crossing a street in Manhattan, where the objective dangers – taxi drivers, bicycle messengers, buses, muggers – are far less predictable than those on the mountain, and where personal skills have less chance to ensure the pedestrian’s safety.”
Apologies for taking up so much comment space, but I find this utterly fascinating! And it applies to taking risks at any level – from rock climbing to starting a new business venture. Whether you’re on the Matterhorn or in Manhattan, there is going to be a set of skills and range of sensitivity that will need to be honed. Looking forward to your upcoming entries – have a great week!
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Not only will we be more successful, we’ll get more enjoyment out of life with these principles. Clear skies or patch of turbulence, isn’t it great to aim for mastery in any situation we might find ourselves in? Good stuff!
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Awesome consideration today! In light of the current Gulf oil disaster, it is ironic that this book was published over a decade ago with great reviews particularly for its summation of the human errors behind the Chernobyl accident. My summation in a nutshell – this book should be required reading for everyone, and the responsibility for success taken by everyone. The skills, details, environmental and psychological factors may be different for each one, but the essence of virtue in handling one’s world responsibly is a starting point that can be shared by everyone.
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I couldn’t help but think of Abby Sunderland, the young sailor recently in the news when her quest to set a new world record had to be abandoned due to irreparable damage to her boat during a storm. Being a mother to teens myself, I understand the emotion behind the controversy of letting a young person attempt something like this on their own. But given the specific training that a sailor or a pilot has to go through, and the developmental maturity that a 16 or 17 year old is capable of, I’d have to err on the side of supporting my child reach such a goal if they were willing to take all the necessary steps to make it happen and I had the financial means to assist. In any case, I thought Abby’s response to the “I told you so’s” on her blog was indicative of her maturity and understanding.
“There are plenty of things people can think of to blame for my situation; my age, the time of year and many more. The truth is, I was in a storm and you don’t sail through the Indian Ocean without getting in at least one storm. It wasn’t the time of year it was just a Southern Ocean storm. Storms are part of the deal when you set out to sail around the world.
As for age, since when does age create gigantic waves and storms?”
Glad she is safe and I wish her the best of luck!
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It’s always interesting to see how points like these can be implemented across any industry or endeavor. Thanks for the insight and I’m curious to see how Dorner’s list can help me have a more successful week.
Tx
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The Logic of Failure is a good title – I’ll definitely check the book out. To let failure happen and write it off as being at the mercy of external forces just doesn’t seem right.
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Guidelines anyone can put to immediate good use with long term benefits.
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I printed the PAVE points out and look forward to reviewing them everyday this week to make sure I’m employing common sense and larger vision. Practical, must-do points!
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Great idea – i’ve already referred back to the list several times today….why not have it printed, handy.
I was just speaking with my mentor last week about the topic of planning – it’s a habit we either develop or let atrophy…..why leave anything to chance??!!
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Thanks for the book recommendation & flight analogy
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Thanks, Gregg. It’s nice to have a system like this to use when you are planning. I think it makes you more likely to plan in detail. As they say: “if you fail to plan, you plan to fail”.
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